Player Profile: Scott Schebler

Scott Schebler Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Scott Schebler Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Schebler is one of this year’s biggest surprises. Coming into his age 26 season he had just under 300 major league at bats. As we sit currently, he is one big fly from tying the Home Run lead. He is one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball swinging at more than half of the pitches he sees. His impatient approach leads to unattractive 19% strikeout rate. When you factor in his power production he actually ranks well below average in strikeouts compared to other MLB HR leaders. His walks on the other hand are quite a bit more alarming. Schebler has failed to take more than 13 walks in almost 200 plate appearances this year. Unfortunately the swing concerns are not limited to his lack of plate discipline. He is almost a dead pull hitter, pulling 47% of batted balls in 2017. The shift could be a future concern if corrections are not made. At first glance I might have expected his .247 batting average to see some improvement based on his extremely low BABIP of .228 but, when you consider the batting average on players with a 47% pull rate or greater is .241 I have my doubts. His Statcast profile has several features to get excited about, including his 14 degree launch angle and his 90 MPH AEV (Avg Exit Velo). This combination should lead to good power numbers but I feel extremely confident in saying he will not achieve his current 50 home run pace. I would feel much better about predicting a .450 SLG and 16 more home runs rest of season. Part of my thought process in expecting regression in his power production is stemming from his inability to hit for power on pitches on the inner third of the plate. It is common for young hitters to have short term success in their first trip through the league and then be forced to make adjustments. I am afraid Schebler may be facing an adjustment period in the second half of the season.

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