Fantasy Baseball Tier 3 Starting Pitchers

Tier 3

Aaron Nola

NFBC ADP: 66

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	O-Swing%
Nice!	3.38	49.8%	75.6%	10.8%
Meh.					29.4%

When your O-Swing% (barely below average) is my biggest gripe then you’re probably pret-ty, pret-ty, pret-ty good (gotta love Larry David). Among 2017 qualified starting pitchers, Nola ranked 12th in xFIP, but “just” 20th in ERA. Thus, this 24-year-old’s strong season could have been a touch better. He does a great job of getting ahead of hitters (F-Strike% rank: 14th) and he’s starting to lean on his sweeping curve to put them away. To that point, his curve usage steadily increased from July on, which likely contributed to his 10.57 K/9 in the 2nd half (1st Half: 9.07 K/9).

2017 curve	July	Aug.	Sept.
Usage	27.52%	30.44%	33.6%
Whf/Sw	38.03%	41.75%	50%

This former first round pick (7th overall) is one of those rare starting pitchers that combines an elite ground ball rate (2017 SP rank: 11th) with a K/9 that flirts with double digits. Phillies are a rebuilding team, so wins may not flow like the salmon of Capistrano, but don’t let that Curb Your Enthusiasm. Draft him as your SP2 and reap the benefits all season long.

2018 Projection:

IP	W	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
185	12	195	50	3.40	1.20

Chris Archer

NFBC ADP: 50

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%
Nice!	3.35		81.6%	13.4%
Meh.		42%

“Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.” Was Andy Dufresne (Shawshank Redemption) referring to Chris Archer? At any rate, we’re all still hoping for that Cy Young caliber year from him. That said, he’s still an elite source of strikeouts (249) and his xFIP (15th best) suggests he was a bit unlucky last season (4.07 ERA).

2017 marked his fourth consecutive 30-start season, so it appears durability isn’t an issue despite his slight frame. His 2017 GB% was meh, but it was 3.7 percentage points below his career norm (45.7%). A rebound here would be helpful. His changeup (CH) generated a career-high 32.8% whiffs per swing (Whf/Sw), which is above average. Yet, his CH usage (8%) dropped 3.3 percentage points from 2016. It’ll be interesting to see if the Rays’ new pitching coach, Kyle Snyder, will encourage him to use his CH more frequently (yes, please). “Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.” We hear ya, Red, but there’s still hope that Archer puts it all together.

2018 Projection:

IP	W	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
200	12	235	62	3.74	1.22

Carlos Martinez

NFBC ADP: 53

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	BB%
Nice!	3.63	51.3%		10.6%
Meh.			86.20%		8.3%

I haven’t been looking forward to this player profile. This isn’t a slight on Martinez’s pitching prowess (he’s very good), it’s just that, well, he’s a Cardinal and most of this blurb will be complimentary (grrr). “C-Mart” is a worm burner (easy, PETA), which is to say that he induces a ton of ground balls with his sinker and scorching four-seam fastball (SP avg. velo rank: 4th). His changeup’s Whf/Sw rate increased nearly six percentage points from 2016, but its usage fell during that same time period. Psst, don’t shy away from your changeup, Carlos.

Walks have always been an issue with this faux blonde and unfortunately, this trend may continue given that his F-Strike% decreased for the third consecutive season. Conversely, his HR/FB rate increased by approximately six percentage points from 2016. Assuming positive regression in 2018, I’d expect that rate to gravitate (wink) towards his career mark (11.5%). If so, you can expect his ERA to be more in line with his 2015 and 2016 seasons (3.01 and 3.04). Now, I’d hate to bring up another negative (I don’t hate to), but his contact given up within the strike zone (Z-Contact%) isn’t ideal. Fortunately, the quality of contact given up isn’t terrible. This Cardinal (boo), despite a couple of flaws, can serve as your team’s ace if you take bats early. Draft him and try to ignore the fact he plays for St. Louis (gross).

2018 Projection:

IP	W	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
200	13	192	70	3.35	1.24

Robbie Ray

NFBC ADP: 44

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	BB%	LOB%
Nice!	3.49		81%	14.2%
Meh.		40%			10.7%	84.5%

Robbie Ray is one of the more polarizing starting pitchers heading into 2018 drafts. Coming into the 2017 season, he was a consensus sleeper because of his 11.25 K/9 and 3.45 xFIP he produced in 2016 (174.1 IP). In 2017, he mostly put it all together and rewarded savvy fantasy mangers (yay, us) that took a flier on him. He broke out with a 2.89 ERA, 218 strikeouts & 15 wins. These are the kind of stats you see from Tier One Starting Pitchers.

Ray’s breakout coincides with a change in approach. In 2016, he heavily leaned on his fastball (71.1% usage) and infrequently threw his curve (5.3% usage). Those rates drastically changed for the better in 2017. His fastball usage fell to 59.3% and his curve usage skyrocketed up to 21.9%. That curve generated a ridiculous 47.27% whiffs per swing in 2017. This figure ranked fourth best among all curve balls thrown. The pitch helped him wiggle out of trouble on numerous occasions (hello, LOB%). Warning: segue.

Is Robbie’s 2017 success sustainable or will we see some Ray-gression (I’m a dork)? High strikeout guys are expected to have an above average LOB%, but Ray’s should still decline a tad. If that comes to fruition then his 3.94 BB/9 (worst among qualified SPs) could really bite him in the posterior this season. We continue down this “Debbie Downer” path by noting a 40.4% hard contact allowed. Typically, I don’t heavily weigh pitchers’ quality of contact rates, but when you’re the worst among your peers then it grabs my attention. Oh, and his 2017 FIP was .83 points higher than his ERA. Yes, Ray is probably going to regress a bit, but his elite K/9 (2017 SP rank: 2nd) and ability to limit contact in the zone (2017 SP rank: 4th) means he’s not going to fall off a cliff. That said, his current ADP is a bit too pricey for me, so I probably won’t have many shares. Unless…Chase Field’s new humidor keeps more balls in the yard, which would make Ray’s meh ground ball rate less scary.

2018 Projection:

IP	W	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
190	14	240	75	3.60	1.27

Luis Castillo

NFBC ADP: 103

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	BB%	O-Swing%
Nice!	3.41	58.8%	82.1%	12.6%
Meh.					8.9%	28.3%

Choo-Choo! All aboard the Hype Most efficient means of travel in the 1800s! Train is what I was trying to say there (he swings, he misses). In all seriousness (at least some), Castillo came out of nowhere and burst onto the major league scene in 2017. Not many saw this coming (I sure didn’t) because he wasn’t much more than a high velocity guy that pitched to contact during his time as a Marlins’ farmhand. His fortunes changed when he started to get a feel for his two-seam fastball, which has action similar to a sinker. Of course, unlike most sinkers, Castillo’s sits in the upper 90s and generates a boat load of ground balls.

The average velocity (200 Pitches Min) of his four-seam fastball (97.6 MPH) ranked second behind Tier Two’s own, Luis Severino, and elicits many swings and misses. Speaking of ranks (everyone loves ’em), let’s dig into more of those. Here’s where “La Piedra” ranked among 2017 starting pitchers (min 80 IP):

ERA	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%
16th	19th	6th	11th	14th

Those numbers speak for themselves and I won’t drone on too much longer about his talents. However, I’d be remiss if I failed to mention his changeup, which is already regarded as one of the best in the game. That opinion is backed by a 42.86% Whf/Sw rate, which was fourth best last year. His innings pitched will likely be closely monitored in 2018. That said, he did throw 169.2 professional innings between AA and The Show last year, so I don’t think it’s a stretch to project him for somewhere in the neighborhood of 175 IP. Some still regard him as a SP3, but I see him as a SP2. Aggressive? Sure, but fortune favors the bold…or something like that.

2018 Projection:

IP	W	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
185	11	195	55	3.45	1.17

Masahiro Tanaka

NFBC ADP: 102

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	Durability
Nice!	3.44	49.2%	83.6%	15.1%
Meh.					?

First, a short story. During a start last May, Tanaka got lit up in what was one of many horrible early season starts. I was fed up, so I tilted. Yup, out of anger, I dropped him. Straight. Freakin’. Drop. Immediately afterwards I said to myself, “Watch him turn it around now that I got rid of him.” Well, here we are less than a year later and I’m regretting the move like I thought I would (dynasty).

Tanaka’s second half ERA (3.77) and xFIP (2.83) were marked improvements over his first half woes (5.47 ERA; 3.89 xFIP). These improvements coincided with an increased usage of his slider (SL), which generated a well above average 39.83% Whf/Sw last season. His 2017 SL usage (30.5%) surpassed both his fastball (27.6%) and splitter (26.3%). Those type of usage rates help Tanaka keep hitters off balance as he led the majors in chase rate (O-Swing%: 37.8).

Among qualified staring pitchers, he finished third in SwStr%, so it wasn’t surprising to see him set a career high 9.79 K/9. Tanaka, like some of the other SPs previously covered in this tier, combines a good ground ball rate with swing and miss stuff. His arm falling off at the elbow will always be a concern however. That said, Tanaka’s rebound should remind us all that he hasn’t lost the skill that helped him produce a sub-3.52 ERA in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Finally, the Yankees lineup should be excellent and their bullpen is an embarrassment of riches. Wins could be plentiful.

2018 Projection:

IP	W	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
175	13	185	35	3.63	1.12

Zack Godley

NFBC ADP: 132

2017	xFIP	GB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	BB%	O-Swing%
Nice!	3.32	55.3%		13.3%		33%
Meh.			88.80%		8.5%

Be aggressive. Be, be aggressive. Having Godley listed in tier three is probably a touch aggro, but how interesting would it be to read an article that’s entirely “chalk?” Anyways, to the content. Godley’s approach is very similar to Tanaka’s in that he throws three pitches at least 24% of the time. Surprise (not really), his chase rate was one of the best in the game in 2017. The pitch that hitters seemed to chase the most frequently was his hard curve (83.4 MPH). This offering produced a 45.63% Whf/Sw rate (6th best). Meanwhile, his sinker (92 MPH), cutter (90 MPH) and changeup (84 MPH) aren’t exactly chopped liver. All of these pitches generated either above average swings and misses, ground balls or both. Now, more fun with Godley’s ranks (min 150 IP):

ERA	xFIP	GB%	SwStr%	O-Swing%
16th	10th	4th	9th	9th

Clearly, I’m bullish on him and for good reason. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at a very high rate. Like Ray, Godley could be positively affected by the humidor. According to Derek Carty of ESPN Fantasy Sports, the humidor increased Coors Field’s humidity by fourteen percentage points to get it up to 50%. This had an adverse effect on Coors’ offensive numbers. In comparison, Chase Field has about 16% humidity, so getting that number up to 50% would mean a thirty-six percentage points jump. As a result, it would stand to reason that the offensive numbers at Chase would have some kind of decline. Most peg Godley as an SP3, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him put up SP2 stats.

2018 Projection: