Mocking the Past

Guest Article from our friend, Nathan Longfield @DynastyOneStop

Over the long, cold, dreary offseason where the sports world was focused on football, and the baseball world was focused on not signing free agents, our friends at FFO (Fantasy Front Office) hosted a 30 team dynasty mock draft, spearheaded by our man James (@CubbyNole). The “league” was an OBP and SVHLD league because – breaking news – those are the best ways to play.

The draft was a slow draft that was . . . slow. Nevertheless, it was a good time.

Following the draft I hosted a bracketed competition on Twitter to allow the baseball community to vote for what roster they thought was the best. The bracket ended January 10th 2019, so now that we’ve completed the 2019 season, it’s time to examine how the rosters and brackets have aged over the first season.

For the sake of full disclosure, the first round of the bracket was not anonymous, and so it is possible – though I’m not naming names – that some teams advanced purely because of a popularity contest. After the first round we had a play in to bring back one team that may have just had a bad luck random draw to get back to 16 teams to go through the rest of the rounds, seeding teams based on the results of the first round.

After we get through the bracket results, we’ll go back and reexamine each team for notable changes/developments since January. So to begin, let’s look at the rosters. The first 16 teams are numbered because those were the seedings based on margin of victory from round 1.

First Round Victors:

14 teams that (spoilers) didn’t move past round one:

This is how the bracket played out:

Ok. So since everyone loves looking at charts and numbers (who are we kidding, you’re reading an article about a fantasy baseball mock draft, you do). We’re onto the bracket of 16.

Congrats Cubby on the Preseason Voting Win!

Now, for the fun part . . . We drafted, graded, & voted on these mid-offseason (January 2019), where nothing was really changing.

But if you were following along the rosters throughout this season you might be wondering what morons were drafting and voting for these rosters. Isn’t it fun how much rosters can change in just a season?

For example, the final two teams were James’ (Cubby’s) team and my own (Nathan). It was a matchup of a team where James went all in on the youth and my team that went with a “win now” strategy. I’ll certainly admit that my roster has an odd design. I was getting sniped on pitchers so took value on bats and heavy on arms since a SVHLD league allows more flexibility there. But good grief it’s not pretty.

In talking to James while writing this, he noted he’d probably take half of this roster in retrospect.

Obviously, getting Bellinger at pick 44 looks amazing now and he does have a good core of young players.

On the other hand. My roster (barf).

So…. Let’s actually dig into rosters drafted.

To do this, I decided to analyze the rosters as if this was a set and forget it league where everyone drafted accumulates stats.

At the end of the season this is how the standings would’ve shaken out in a Roto League, if it were a set it and forget it where everyone’s stats counted:

And points by category:

Obviously, this is a dynasty league, so a team like Cubby’s that won the vote no one would’ve expected to be high this year. So of course a year of roto rankings shouldn’t be seen as the final judgement. But, it sure is interesting.

So team by team, going by the Roto rankings, and no, I’m not gonna break down every player for both our sakes. But we’ll see what stands out.

As you probably noticed, the champ in the bracket came in 27th. Second place came in 16th. It really is interesting how much a roster can change over the course of a season. A pick that seemed like a reach can become a steal. A pick that seemed sure fire can look bad.

  1. Mark Begey
    • Suarez at 61 came out a great value.
    • Sonny Gray at 421 – wow.
    • Delino DeShieds at 481 – that paid off too.
    • Caleb Smith at 660 is nice.
  2. Bishphat
    • Josh Donaldson at 134 was good.
    • Yasmani Grandal at 227 was … very good. Guess bishphat was the Brewers of this draft, only one who saw the talent.
    • Carlos Santana at 254 was good value
    • Dylan Bundy got drafted in the 12th round. Ouch
    • Derek Holland at 674 … bad loogys not great to draft. Ever.
  3. FreshMeatComm
    • Altuve. Cole. Conforto. Ozuna
    • Mejia in the 5th…. Time will tell . . . maybe
    • Josh Bell at 212. That’s nice.
    • Chavis at 389 played up.
    • A.J. Reed . . .
  4. RichdDidn’t even make the bracket – so… whoops
    • Aguilar in the 3rd round – ouch.
    • Salvador Perez at 169 didn’t play this year due to Tommy John Surgery in March.
    • Jorge Polanco at 252 though – nicely done.
    • Shin-soo Choo at 349 – old – and always underrated
  5. ProspectFiend
    • Yelich. 19 overall ❤️
    • Rendon. 42 overall ❤️
  6. Cweatherwax13
    • Stanton at 40 – persistent health issues, ouch
    • Gallo at 81 – ❤️
    • Kiura at 100 – ❤️
    • J.D. Davis at 460 – very nice
  7. MyyMannn
    • J.D. at 15 overall obviously not bad, but he did not return the value there.
    • Victor Victor at 135 hasn’t aged well. But that could change.
    • Cavan Biggio at 195 is nice looking.
  8. RhysBWhite
    • Javier at 22 – ❤️
    • Diaz at 82 seemed high in a SVHLD. Now seems not great.
  9. ChopCityJason
    • Trevor Story at 20 was nice.
    • Willy at 140. Biased. But love it.
    • Ryu at 200 – posted a 2.32 ERA. TWO THREE TWO
    • Fulmer at 281. 0 IP in 2019
    • Dustin May at 461 looking good
  10. FantasyGospel
    • JV at 50 is a steal
    • Cano at 191… eh
    • Fowler at 491 turned out pretty well
  11. FrontOfficeJer
    • Alonso. 73. ❤️
    • Teoscar Henandez at 168 a touch aggressive
    • Hunter Renfroe at 288 is good
    • Barreto at 313 . . . isn’t good
    • Kyler Murray – 🏈(Declared for NFL Draft Jan 14th 2019)
  12. Bdentrek
    • VLADDDDD. It was 9th overall so not some coup. But still, it’s VLAD
    • Castellanos at 69 was . . . nice.
    • Franmil Reyes at 292 was a great pick up.
    • Cole Tucker at 592 is good value.
  13. 6hallow
    • Devers at 53 paid off.
    • Bieber at 128 is very nice
    • Archer at 173 – bad
    • Semien at 233 is nice. Best shortstop that ever got traded for Shark.
  14. FantasyAid1
    • Flaherty at 35 played off well. Homer.
    • DeJong at 146 solid. Homer.
    • The rest is not swell. Homer. 🏠
  15. FSAA
    • German at 65. Eh
    • C-Mart at 125 when he’s in the pen is not ideal
    • Calhoun at 236 is nice
    • Soler at 305 – ☀️ 💪
    • Swihart – hehe
  16. NathanLongfield
    • Corey Seager – always been higher on him than others . . . not a great pick
    • Gary at 78. That worked alright
    • Votto at 103 – bad. Very bad
    • Gregory Polanco – very injured
    • Sano – that worked well
    • Rich Hill is old and injured
  17. Jrkelly618
    • Nintendo in the first round is fine, not great
    • Wil Myers at 98 and Profar at 143 – nope
    • Lucroy at 563 – meh
  18. CharlieStrikes99
    • Forrest at 66 could pay off – Right now though? Not great
    • Shaw at 115 is ROUGH
    • Seth Beer at 186 – 🍺
  19. FantasyThumbs
    • Senzel at 54 is still really good. Injuries aside
    • Cruz at 174. Very good.
    • Giolito at 367 – ❤️
    • Albert Almora at 427, Wacha at 474, and Morrow at 487. Nope
  20. JobieCantrelle
    • Tatis at 37 is gonna be a steal
    • Miles at 144 is fine. Not good.
    • Buxton at 217 is great since he seemed to finally be good
  21. TheBaseballJedi
    • It’s young. A lot of questions.
    • Godly at 25 is a stretch at this point.
    • If Ohtani can produce on both sides of the ball at 36 that’s great
  22. HandzelSports
    • Xander at 51 turned out nicely.
    • Scooter at 70 – noooope
    • D.J. LeMahieu at 190 and Keuchel at 231 are both great
    • Moustakas at 310 is stellar
    • Yusniel at 411 is pretty nice too
  23. BruceCagleJr2
    • JRam at 4 – I mean, everyone thought he was up here for dynasty and redraft. But if the second half of the season is what he is going forward then it’s fine again.
    • Peraza at 124 is a touch high.
    • Tyler White at 244….
  24. FreezeStats
    • Walker. Eloy. Rodgers. Trammel. Lowe. Urias…
    • It is way too early to make a decision on this roster
  25. DanJPreciado
    • Khris Dvais at 76 . . . not great
    • The rest is . . . subpar
    • Mondesi good, Puk should be good
  26. Mattydubbz13
    • Riley at 183 is good.
    • Same as other bottom teams. Whole lotta young questions
  27. Cubby
    • Soto at 17. Bellinger at 44. ❤️
    • Yordan at 284. Amazing
    • Odor and O’Neill at 164 and 197 – not great
    • Skaggs at 377 – 😢
    • Again – too early. Very much a prospect heavy roster
  28. Goldyhappens
    • Haniger at 59 . . . not great
    • Edwin at 122 nope
    • Eovaldi at 179 nope
    • Lamb at 239
    • Alex Wood at 242.
    • Unlike most of the other bad teams at the bottom this one isn’t young. Not good
  29. Gatorsosa
    • Yoan at 87 looks good.
    • Meadows at 147 looks great
    • Young. Young. Well see what happens.
  30. Jrbecks
    • Jo freaking Adell.
    • Wander Franco
    • David Price??????
    • Honeywell. Touki.
    • Braun??
    • NICOOOOOO
    • This team has some great prospects, but also some odd old guys.

One thing that’s striking to me is just how bad some of these rosters are. Even the good ones, you look over them and they just have a look of names that are not all that interesting. That said, it’s a 30 teamer, so it’s a very very deep league.

So, I guess the moral of the story here is that values can change quickly. We all know that already, but when a group of managers who know their stuff, and voters and vote, and the teams don’t sit at all where they would’ve been expected pre-season, it’s telling that the players don’t have the same ranking as expected.

So, what’s the lesson? All you can do is draft as best you can in the moment, and hope it turns out. Of course, the key here too is that there wasn’t trading or anything, and those teams will always change.

Anyways… let’s do this again soon.

Signed, your Fantasy Baseball Friend @DynastyOneStop

 

 

 

Comments are closed.

Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

Up ↑